Comments on: Caution on Abuse/Safe Seat Correlation

By: A Wikileaks Supporter

A Wikileaks Supporter — Fri, 10 Dec 2010 09:33:13 +0000

Hi, you should check out http://www.voteonwikileaks.com. It’s sort of like a crowdsourced collection of arguments against Wikileaks. Considering you’re a blogger, i think you’d find it to be an interesting read

By: Charlotte Gore

Charlotte Gore — Wed, 20 May 2009 11:09:13 +0000

Mark, I’m more than happy that your analysis of the data we have is excellent.

By: Mark Reckons

Mark Reckons — Wed, 20 May 2009 10:42:11 +0000

I think CF and Alix are right that this has taken on a life of its own. That is the nature of the internet and I do not regret that it has done. I have caveated it all the way through and made several references to how more data would be useful.

Alix – I have been involved in the electoral reform movement for several years now (long before I joined the Lib Dems) and I am convinced that there is unlikely to be a better opportunity than the current political crisis in this political generation to get the argument for reform on the table. My findings here are just a small part of that but it has at least got some wider coverage and got people talking about it.

I could be wrong but I am sceptical that anyone will produce a “shock expose” that undermines what I have done because it is going to be very difficult to get an agreed methodology and way of cutting the data. I don’t think there will be a definitive rebuttal to that that proves what I did was objectively wrong. Everything is open to interpretation. The important thing from my perspective is as I said to get people talking about this and my initial findings have provoked that.

People have been writing pieces critical of PR for years. That won’t come as a shock when it continues to happen. A lot of people automatically seem to think that list systems will be used which is where a lot of the arguments against it come from. I personally advocate STV which has its problems but seems to me the least worst system as it maintains the constituency link (albeit multiple MPs in a larger constituency but that can be better in some ways) and gives proper power to the electorate to vote for who they really want, not the donkey in the redor blue rosette. That is why the Lib Dems, ERS, MVC etc. all support it. Supporters of STV need to be ready to make the case and I really feel that now is the time. If I have made a smidgen of progress towards this now being properly debated rather than stifled as always seems to happen then I will feel it has been a good few days work.

By: Alix

Alix — Wed, 20 May 2009 10:08:00 +0000

I think what worries me even more is the rush to talk PR. There isn’t an existing mainstream public discourse on electoral reform yet, so I think people are kinda wiki-ing it before they write their pieces and PR comes out as the main event. If it happens that (a) someone critical writes some “shock expose” undermining the stat analysis – which as you say is completely possible – and (b) someone else critical writes some shock expose of how PR isn’t actually that hot after all, then the whole thing risks collapsing in on itself.

But that’s the trouble with narratives. Once you’ve kicked them off, you can’t slow them down.

By: Letters From A Tory

Letters From A Tory — Wed, 20 May 2009 09:09:37 +0000

Indeed. The Telegraph clearly has weeks worth of ammunition but has been fairly selective up till this point. No-one should assume for a second that we have or will ever have the full data set to work with.

By: Stu

Stu — Wed, 20 May 2009 08:54:33 +0000

An interesting point – the link between these two factors is all the more compelling for being extremely intuitive. I had assumed the worst claimers would be the safest seat holders, as, I imagine, had many (part of the reason I was being harsh about the Lib Dems, in fact).

The problem is that we’re getting this information on The Telegraph’s schedule, and only the information that The Telegraph deigns to give us. As I was saying yesterday, if our friendly leak in the Fees Office had posted all these receipts on Wikileaks instead of selling them to The Telegraph, this kind of analysis would be far easier, more informed and quite possibly more accurate…

By: Constantly Furious

Constantly Furious — Wed, 20 May 2009 08:27:47 +0000

Nicely put, and you’re right. Guido’s link will ensure that within a couple of days, everyone will know that it’s a scientifically established fact that …

That’s teh Interwebs for you.