A quick flick over to the BBC’s website and I see this handsome headline on the politics page:

“Election not in bag, says Cameron“

It’s a curious thing, being certain to win. Cameron has to avoid looking triumphalist, smug, or complacent, otherwise winning might not be quite so certain. He’s also got to keep his supporters and voters eager to vote – something put at risk by a foregone conclusion.

This is straight out of Tony Blair’s Election Playbook, funnily enough. Tony went to enormous lengths to play down expectations running up to elections, to send out the message that the Tories had a realistic shot at winning if Labour voters stayed at home. The other fear Tony had was that a certain Labour landslide would motivate Tory voters to come out and vote the opposite way.

For Cameron it’s the same thing – he desperately needs Tory turnout to be very high, and he needs to avoid a sudden unexpected return of Labour voters who, fearing a Tory landslide hold their noses and go to the polls at the last minute.

What’s intriguing to me is that this seems to confirm that Cameron does, in fact, think the election is in the bag: A universal truth about politicians is that when they’re tub-thumping and bombastic, they’re usually weak and uncertain. When they’re appearing weak and uncertain it’s because they’re very much in control and strong.

Consider Brown’s bullish performances in the House and Minister’s performances on television. You see them feigning confidence and strength, telling people that they can win, pretending to be in control of the country. The reality is the exact opposite.

Cameron’s switched to humble, modesty mode. In other words, he’s got Gordon by the nuts and he knows it.