Another day and we still haven’t got a deal. Newspapers today full of condemnation of ‘two faced’ Clegg opening up formal talks with Labour and the curious attempts by Brown and Labour’s high command to wreck the Tory/Liberal talks. That’s unfair – it’s looking more and more like Clegg wants to do the deal, but as yet hasn’t been able to get his party to go with him.
Yesterday’s performance by Brown was about freaking out the Lib Dem MPs, unsettling them and making the decision for them individually intolerably difficult. They’re also trying to create a media narrative that Labour are still in the game, which… well, let’s just say, ‘job done’ on that front.
But consider: Lib Dem MPs don’t have the support of Trade Unions or Lord Ashcroft to help with their on the ground campaigns, yet ground campaigns are what keeps Lib Dems in the House of Commons. They rely on volunteers, supporters and activists to run the sort of intense campaigns that cause little pockets of Lib Dem support to emerge.
In the back of every Lib Dem MP’s mind will be the need not just to retain ‘Anyone but the Tory’ votes, but their grassroots support too – the ones that do the actual work. Scottish Lib Dem MPs, especially, will be concerned about their future careers if a Tory/Lib deal is done.
It’s not just about getting a deal that’s good for the country. It’s about getting a deal they can justify to everyone else, one that stops them hemorrhaging volunteers and votes. There’s a begrudging acceptance that the Tory/Lib deal is the only one that can deliver a viable Government, and the promises of immediate AV depend on Labour being able to whip every single member of the Rainbow coalition to vote for it (which they can’t) and get it through the House of Lords (which they might not). It seems inconceivable that such a coalition could deliver what Brown has promised, and so as exciting as a potential Labour deal might have been, I think this prospect is something few believe is viable.
Nick Clegg’s taking his ‘clarified’ deal back to these Lib Dem MPs this morning. It’s all down to them. The reason they’re so desperate for some sort of PR is because they believe supporting the Conservatives will cost them millions of votes no matter how admirable, obvious and correct the decision might be.
So what now? What now is we wait. Again.
Tony Butcher said...
11 May 10 at 10:57 am
I know it is a difficult choice for many Lib Dems to get into bed with the Tory’s but I beleive that it will be better for them in the long run if they do so. Lib Dem Parliamentary success has usually come on the back of local government success. If the Lib Dems in PArliament can show the can participate in running the country it may inspire more people to vote for them in the future.
Unfortuantely a coalition with Labour is rocky at best, and worst it gives the electorate the impression of propping up a failed Government, which could be very damaging in any future election.
It Is The British Electorate Who Are Truly Progressive: http://wp.me/pRHY4-V
Rod said...
11 May 10 at 10:58 am
Supporting ConLib may well cost the Lib Dems millions of votes – particularly on the Celtic fringes. But I really wouldn’t want to be an English Lib Dem MP defending the propping up of a discredited Labour government through a LabLib deal either. That deal will end up costing millions of votes too. Welcome to the new politics.
Charlotte Gore said...
11 May 10 at 11:03 am
Yep. I think I actually said on one of those House of Comments podcasts months ago that a Hung Parliament would be a nightmare for the Lib Dems, that there’s no possible outcome from it that wouldn’t end up with them losing millions of votes.
Do a deal with Tories? Lose anti-Tory votes.
Do a deal with Labour? Lose anti-Labour votes.
Don’t do a deal at all? Lose votes from everyone after forcing second general election.
What are they supposed to do? Their ONLY hope, and it’s a tiny tiny hope, is that the Lib/Con coalition is somehow incredibly popular and well loved. It’s not going to happen – they’re going to have to be brutal with the public financies. It’ll be great news for the Tories to have someone to share that burden with, to show that it’s not just Tories doing what Tories always do.
It’s an extreme long shot for them, but that’s all they can do – look statesmanlike, look serious, look like they’ve got what it takes to Govern and hope the electorate understands the decision they’ve taken.
Simon Fawthrop said...
11 May 10 at 12:03 pm
Minor point but if a Labour led coalition takes AV to the Lords it will have to go through as it was part of Labour’s manifesto and by convention these bills aren’t blocked.
Charlotte Gore said...
11 May 10 at 12:16 pm
Hmm, not quite. The promise was for a referendum, not direct legislation, so Lords approval would be necessary.
Disenfranchised of Buckingham said...
11 May 10 at 12:42 pm
INAL but I don’t see what manifestos have to do with the Lords in a coalition government.
After all the argument is the public voted for the manifesto so it over rides the wishes of the Lords. Jo Public hasn’t voted for the mongrel of a lib/lab (or lib/con) coalition and certainly said coalition doesn’t have a manifesto.
Spoke too soon | Anonymong said...
11 May 10 at 1:00 pm
[...] to play Labour and the Tories against each other to secure the best advantage for the LibDems and sod national interest. Of course it seems likely that if the LibDems do get to power via the Labour Party that [...]