Another day and we still haven’t got a deal. Newspapers today full of condemnation of ‘two faced’ Clegg opening up formal talks with Labour and the curious attempts by Brown and Labour’s high command to wreck the Tory/Liberal talks. That’s unfair – it’s looking more and more like Clegg wants to do the deal, but as yet hasn’t been able to get his party to go with him.

Yesterday’s performance by Brown was about freaking out the Lib Dem MPs, unsettling them and making the decision for them individually intolerably difficult. They’re also trying to create a media narrative that Labour are still in the game, which… well, let’s just say, ‘job done’ on that front.

But consider: Lib Dem MPs don’t have the support of Trade Unions or Lord Ashcroft to help with their on the ground campaigns, yet ground campaigns are what keeps Lib Dems in the House of Commons. They rely on volunteers, supporters and activists to run the sort of intense campaigns that cause little pockets of Lib Dem support to emerge.

In the back of every Lib Dem MP’s mind will be the need not just to retain ‘Anyone but the Tory’ votes, but their grassroots support too – the ones that do the actual work. Scottish Lib Dem MPs, especially, will be concerned about their future careers if a Tory/Lib deal is done.

It’s not just about getting a deal that’s good for the country. It’s about getting a deal they can justify to everyone else, one that stops them hemorrhaging volunteers and votes. There’s a begrudging acceptance that the Tory/Lib deal is the only one that can deliver a viable Government, and the promises of immediate AV depend on Labour being able to whip every single member of the Rainbow coalition to vote for it (which they can’t) and get it through the House of Lords (which they might not). It seems inconceivable that such a coalition could deliver what Brown has promised, and so as exciting as a potential Labour deal might have been, I think this prospect is something few believe is viable.

Nick Clegg’s taking his ‘clarified’ deal back to these Lib Dem MPs this morning. It’s all down to them. The reason they’re so desperate for some sort of PR is because they believe supporting the Conservatives will cost them millions of votes no matter how admirable, obvious and correct the decision might be.

So what now? What now is we wait. Again.

Tom’s very depressing day…

It’s reported that “Labour” is offering the LibDems an immediate Bill to ditch FPTP in favour of AV and a referendum on further change afterwards. This cannot be delivered; Labour MPs will not support it. I do hope some senior LibDems are reading this.

I once witnessed the spectacle of a dog being offered a walk and food at the same time. It ran in circles, terrified of losing the walk if he went for the food, and terrified of losing the food if it went for the walk.

Today wasn’t supposed to like this. The Tories and the Lib Dems were supposed to have reached an agreement by now, shaken hands in front of the cameras and we were going to be moving on. The national interest and economic stability was going to be put first.

Instead, the negotiations have gone public. Labour’s deal – a bill to make AV the voting system immediately, without a referendum (assuming they can get it past the commons) has been made public. Brown has stepped down. Labour are doing everything they can to keep the dream of the Rainbow Coalition together. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have sniffed at the offer from the Tories: A referendum on AV for the British People, and we now know it’s their final offer.

That’s it then. All we can do is wait. But suddenly it feels like the Lib/Con deal is off and the Lib/Lab deal is on, and I’ve completely lost my ability to look at this objectively. Lib Dem activists on Twitter are saying:

Apparently Tories have offered Lib Dems a referendum on Alternative Vote, final offer. Surely, surely, they can’t say yes? (@alexfoster)

@CharlotteGore If that’s their final offer, fuck ‘em, frankly. (@stealthmunchkin)

I’ve just finished on the phone with a Lib Dem that I know that works in a Constituency office. He says at least 3 people will tear up their membership cards if there’s a deal with the Tories. The grassroot Lib Dems are as thrilled with the idea of a coalition as the Tories, and in their contempt for each other we may well yet see tribal party politics prevail.

It’s all getting a bit horrible out there. The hope of a non-partisan Government that puts dealing with the deficit first is a very, very tough thing to just let go of just like that.

The Lib Dem’s dilemma is still an impossible one, but looking from the outside I still have to hope and believe it’s possible for them to do the right thing.

Brown’s just told us he’s stepping down as leader of the Labour Party. Gordon Brown was THE sticking point between Lib Dem and Labour negotiations (as part of forming a rainbow coalition of the losers), and so, unbelievably, Barnacle Brown has in fact stepped down

Worst still, formal negotiations with Labour have begun, apparently. The major hurdle for the Lib Dems out of the way, there’s now talk of an instant, no referendum bill to bring in Alternative Voting immediately.

As depressing, disheartening, demoralising and soul destroying as it may be, I don’t think the Lib Dems, still stinging from the 1974 Lib/Lab pact where they failed to get PR, can refuse that. Not without getting a concrete offer of PR from Cameron.

Lib Dem MPs were given the power to make this decision to guarantee that if and when one of the big two parties ever tripped up again, they’d make no mistakes – they’d get PR or bust, no matter what.

If they think they can get away with jilting the Tories and that the electorate will forgive them for putting.. well..  their own party’s self interest ahead of absolutely everything else? They’ll do it. No question. Short of having to tolerate a referendum on bringing back the death penalty, there’s very little Lib Dems will turn their nose up at to get some sort of PR.

What’s tragically disappointing is that even as a member of the Lib Dems (at one point) even I didn’t pick up just how single minded this party is on this issue. Seems I didn’t see that particular memo. Talks between them and the Tories appear to have stalled on a few issues. The MPs are refusing to sign it off in it’s current form – now we know why. They claim that economic stability is their top priority. Quite simply I’m not sure I believe that now.

So sod civil liberties. Sod sorting out the deficit this year. Sod the plans to scrap ID cards and the Digital Economy Bill. As long as the sodding Lib Dems get their sodding PR, everything will be just fine, right?

So thanks, Gordon. You might just get the last laugh after all.

UPDATE: So the Tories, it seems, have offered the Lib Dems a referendum on AV, while Labour have offered a bill to give us AV immediately, without a referendum (assuming they can get it through the House of Commons, which isn’t exactly 100%). It’s their final offer, and if they’re saying ‘final offer’ publicly, that means it is.

They have to do this deal now, surely? Surely? Don’t they? Please?

Turns out I really do live in a country where you can be found guilty of a crime for writing this on Twitter:

Crap! Robin Hood Airport is closed. You’ve got a week… otherwise I’m blowing the airport sky high!

More information on the Paul Chambers case at the excellent Jack of Kent blog with more background here.

If anything sums up why I approached this General Election with something of an ‘Anyone but Labour’ attitude, it’s exactly this sort of thing… this sense that I don’t really understand this country anymore, that something is profoundly wrong with the relationship between the people and the powers that be.

UPDATE: The price of Paul’s crime is £1000 and a criminal record. Least that money’s going to comfort his victims in some way… er… wait…