Are the Tories really about to “lurch right” at the last minute? Assuming the poster is for real, that is. Considering the quality and message it could be something only ever intended to be seen by readers of Conservative Home, to cheer them up. I really hope that’s the case. I really, really do.
First of all, let’s consider the message itself: “Let’s cut benefits for those who refuse work.” This policy is not shocking. Labour’s own manifesto says:
We will end for good the concept of a life on benefit by offering all those unemployed for more than two years work they must accept
The only real difference here is that the Tories have the guts to be specific about what “must accept” might mean. What about Labour? Removal of benefits altogether? Prison? Labour camps? At this point it’s anyone’s guess. Labour won’t be making a poster about their policy, either.
But it does provoke an obvious question: Is David Cameron still in charge of the Conservative Party’s message? Whether the four years of ‘decontamination’ has really worked remains to be seen, but this new message couldn’t be more explicit in saying, “No more Mr Nice Guy.”
Has the crisis in the polls and the firm, sharp, swift kick in the nuts that the electorate appears determined to inflict on both him and Brown caused what always happens to leaders when the troops become disillusioned and demoralised: They lose control. The troops mutiny and rivals begin to flex their muscles. Someone, somewhere, is in desperate need to bolster the Tory core vote and they’re getting their way. If Cameron’s behind this it’s a humiliating retreat into comfortable Tory territory and a pre-emptive admission that the last four years have been a mistake. Alternatively it looks like Cameron’s lost control of the message, or possibly worse that no-one at Tory HQ understands just how badly this sort of message plays with non-Core Tories. With apologies to my Tory friends, this doesn’t look good.
What’s tragic about this whole affair is that if Labour had said the same thing (and, you know, they have) they don’t endure the label of The Nasty Party. That’s because no-one seriously believes that Labour are in politics to punish the poorest people in society for their failures – whereas, true or not, people do actually believe that about the Conservatives. The decontamination strategy was supposed to change people’s minds about what the motives behind Tory policies are. The measure of its success would be their ability to get away with messages like this. But surely testing the credibility of the decontaminated brand is something you do during the second term, not before the General Election?
Time to get the popcorn out and wait and see.
UPDATE: Just to make it absolutely clear, I don’t have a problem with the policy. I actually admire any party that has the guts to tackle welfare reform. My point, in a nutshell, is that the Tories want to win, and that means appealing to more than just natural Conservatives. It means appealing to more people than they’ve ever appealed to before… this seems counterproductive.
