The manifesto, based on what the Guardian has revealed, is looking much, much tastier than I imagined we’d get from a Government of Britain. The Civil Liberties section looks especially good, including a ‘Freedom Bill’ or ‘Repeal Act’ (as we’d hoped). Looking forward to seeing the full detail about what that includes.

Bed now. Brain completely frazzled after these last 5 days. Trying to lower my own expectations, but the idea that this is going to be a pretty radical, reforming Government is back with a vengeance.

I note with some amusement that despite leaving the Lib Dems and trying to be an independent, non-partial blogger I’ve found myself accidentally becoming a Pro Government blogger – or perhaps the first Coalition blogger (Neither Tory nor Lib Dem, but supportive of the two working together). I’m not sure I like that. My objectivity is being compromised again, I can feel it.

Still, more on this tomorrow after I’ve slept, seen the proper details and begun forming a more rational opinion on the good and the bad.

Ultimately Labour has gone. I got my wish. I’m surprisingly happy.

I suspect they don’t. A Coalition Government gives the impression that they’re acting in the national interest, not party interest. “If it’s okay by the Lib Dems, it can’t be that bad, can it? It must be necessary, right?”

We’ll see if the Lib Dems make a big enough crowd for the Tories to hide safely in.

Yesterday’s performance by Brown was about freaking out the Lib Dem MPs, unsettling them and making the decision for them individually intolerably difficult. They’re also trying to create a media narrative that Labour are still in the game, which… well, let’s just say, ‘job done’ on that front.

But consider: Lib Dem MPs don’t have the support of Trade Unions or Lord Ashcroft to help with their on the ground campaigns, yet ground campaigns are what keeps Lib Dems in the House of Commons. They rely on volunteers, supporters and activists to run the sort of intense campaigns that cause little pockets of Lib Dem support to emerge.

In the back of every Lib Dem MP’s mind will be the need not just to retain ‘Anyone but the Tory’ votes, but their grassroots support too – the ones that do the actual work. Scottish Lib Dem MPs, especially, will be concerned about their future careers if a Tory/Lib deal is done.

It’s not just about getting a deal that’s good for the country. It’s about getting a deal they can justify to everyone else, one that stops them hemorrhaging volunteers and votes. There’s a begrudging acceptance that the Tory/Lib deal is the only one that can deliver a viable Government, and the promises of immediate AV depend on Labour being able to whip every single member of the Rainbow coalition to vote for it (which they can’t) and get it through the House of Lords (which they might not). It seems inconceivable that such a coalition could deliver what Brown has promised, and so as exciting as a potential Labour deal might have been, I think this prospect is something few believe is viable.

Nick Clegg’s taking his ‘clarified’ deal back to these Lib Dem MPs this morning. It’s all down to them. The reason they’re so desperate for some sort of PR is because they believe supporting the Conservatives will cost them millions of votes no matter how admirable, obvious and correct the decision might be.

So what now? What now is we wait. Again.

Instead, the negotiations have gone public. Labour’s deal – a bill to make AV the voting system immediately, without a referendum (assuming they can get it past the commons) has been made public. Brown has stepped down. Labour are doing everything they can to keep the dream of the Rainbow Coalition together. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have sniffed at the offer from the Tories: A referendum on AV for the British People, and we now know it’s their final offer.

That’s it then. All we can do is wait. But suddenly it feels like the Lib/Con deal is off and the Lib/Lab deal is on, and I’ve completely lost my ability to look at this objectively. Lib Dem activists on Twitter are saying:

Apparently Tories have offered Lib Dems a referendum on Alternative Vote, final offer. Surely, surely, they can’t say yes? (@alexfoster)

@CharlotteGore If that’s their final offer, fuck ‘em, frankly. (@stealthmunchkin)

I’ve just finished on the phone with a Lib Dem that I know that works in a Constituency office. He says at least 3 people will tear up their membership cards if there’s a deal with the Tories. The grassroot Lib Dems are as thrilled with the idea of a coalition as the Tories, and in their contempt for each other we may well yet see tribal party politics prevail.

It’s all getting a bit horrible out there. The hope of a non-partisan Government that puts dealing with the deficit first is a very, very tough thing to just let go of just like that.

The Lib Dem’s dilemma is still an impossible one, but looking from the outside I still have to hope and believe it’s possible for them to do the right thing.

Worst still, formal negotiations with Labour have begun, apparently. The major hurdle for the Lib Dems out of the way, there’s now talk of an instant, no referendum bill to bring in Alternative Voting immediately.

As depressing, disheartening, demoralising and soul destroying as it may be, I don’t think the Lib Dems, still stinging from the 1974 Lib/Lab pact where they failed to get PR, can refuse that. Not without getting a concrete offer of PR from Cameron.

Lib Dem MPs were given the power to make this decision to guarantee that if and when one of the big two parties ever tripped up again, they’d make no mistakes – they’d get PR or bust, no matter what.

If they think they can get away with jilting the Tories and that the electorate will forgive them for putting.. well..  their own party’s self interest ahead of absolutely everything else? They’ll do it. No question. Short of having to tolerate a referendum on bringing back the death penalty, there’s very little Lib Dems will turn their nose up at to get some sort of PR.

What’s tragically disappointing is that even as a member of the Lib Dems (at one point) even I didn’t pick up just how single minded this party is on this issue. Seems I didn’t see that particular memo. Talks between them and the Tories appear to have stalled on a few issues. The MPs are refusing to sign it off in it’s current form – now we know why. They claim that economic stability is their top priority. Quite simply I’m not sure I believe that now.

So sod civil liberties. Sod sorting out the deficit this year. Sod the plans to scrap ID cards and the Digital Economy Bill. As long as the sodding Lib Dems get their sodding PR, everything will be just fine, right?

So thanks, Gordon. You might just get the last laugh after all.

UPDATE: So the Tories, it seems, have offered the Lib Dems a referendum on AV, while Labour have offered a bill to give us AV immediately, without a referendum (assuming they can get it through the House of Commons, which isn’t exactly 100%). It’s their final offer, and if they’re saying ‘final offer’ publicly, that means it is.

They have to do this deal now, surely? Surely? Don’t they? Please?

“The Tories” they cry, “were BLUFFING! We haven’t got a deal and the markets haven’t crashed! Ooo the liars! ”

Ah. No. Sorry. Isn’t it just as plausible that the markets are rising on the back of confidence that a deal will be done (and considering the deadline set by Nick Clegg) at some point today, and that this deal will be putting the economy and sorting out the deficit as their top priority either way?

Markets like that sort of thing. Hell, this non-aligned political blogger loves this sort of thing. We haven’t got a Government but a majority Government looks more likely today than it did on Friday, doesn’t it?

Update: The BBC has another theory:

But once trading began, the FTSE 100 index of London’s leading shares leapt more than 4% – suggesting traders saw the EU deal over a fund to stop the Greek debt crisis spreading as much more significant.

They didn’t say anything else, but you’d be wrong to think there’s nothing to glean from the tantalising clues we’ve already had.

First, and really really importantly, they’ve already both started spinning positively about what this future coalition might be like – one that puts the national interest and the economic situation first. We’re being buttered up, and the ‘line’ is being taken well in advance of the official announcement of the deal. It’s not just the public, either: It’s the members of the two parties who must, it has to be said, be fretting and worrying about those devious new in-laws.

The other message to take from that is that both sides are clearly determined to do the deal. Everything that needs to be done to keep this deal viable – secrecy and positivity – is being done. There are NO leaks coming from either side, at all: One can assume that there’s a strict ‘no leaks’ clause on continued negotiations to prevent either side being put in an impossible position through a well placed leak or announcement forcing hands.

That’s politics for you – machinations, leaks, intrigue and deceit. Yet these negotiations are surprisingly clean. They’re all being… nice… to each other. Are you unsettled? Are you unnerved? This is, it must be said, weirder than Nick Clegg being compared with Churchill, isn’t it?

If I’d known coalitions were going to be this calming and civilising, I’d have been in favour a lot sooner.

For some of us it’s all about that Freedom Bill, or some Great Repeal Act, rolling back 13 years of odious authoritarian legislation. The Conservatives have the biggest mandate, but not a comprehensive one. The Lib Dems can hold the Conservatives to their pre-election noises about civil liberties, ensuring the Digital Economy Bill gets thrown out, ID cards get scrapped etc.

It’s also about being practical about the desirability for a majority Government if we’re going to deal with the deficit properly.

I’ve just finished writing a pro-Lib/Con piece for the Guardian’s Comment Is Free and rumours abound of an open “Do the Deal” letter going around that I’ll hopefully get to sign. We might not be a very strong or big voice, but from outside tribal bubbles, with no particular attachment to any one party and as someone who agonised over whether to vote Tory or Liberal (and, in the event, I feel pretty good about my choice), this is almost a dream outcome.

All the usual caveats about neither party being especially libertarian apply, but the two together? That’s a leap into the unknown and one that could, if the Lib Dems play it right, show the British People a very different and radical flavour of Government to the one we thought we’d be stuck with.

It’s called the “Triple Lock” and it effectively binds the leader. Without two thirds support of the MPs and Federal Executive, Clegg needs to call a special conference. If he doesn’t get two thirds support of the special conference, he needs to ballot the members. You can see why they call it the Triple Lock. This, courtesy of Mark Park:

(i) in the event of any substantial proposal which could affect the Party’s independence of political action, the consent will be required of a majority of members of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons and the Federal Executive; and,

(ii) unless there is a three-quarters majority of each group in favour of the proposals, the consent of the majority of those present and voting at a Special Conference convened under clause 6.6 of the Constitution; and,

(iii) unless there is a two-thirds majority of those present and voting at that Conference in favour of the proposals, the consent of a majority of all members of the Party voting in the ballot called pursuant to clause 6.11 or 8.6 of the Constitution.

Brown could remain Prime Minister yet.

Update: There’s another issue to consider. Let’s assume Clegg picks the ‘easy’ option for the Lib Dems – Labour and the PR deal. They get their referendum. Everyone will know that this referendum was the carrot that kept Gordon Brown in power. Will people decide:

a) “Yes! PR and the possibility of a permanent Lib/Lab coalition governing forever sounds fantastic!”

b) “PR is awesome. It won’t lead to permanent Lib/Lab Government. It’s just absolutely necessary anyway”

c) “Fuck you, Lib Dems.”

A referendum may be in Gordon Brown’s gift, but the idea that such a coalition could WIN that referendum seems like a pipe dream to me. And if they lost it? Well, the dream dies for another half a century at least, and the backlash that caused the failure of the referendum will continue to claim more seats from the Lib Dems at the next General Election.

Update 2: From the comments (this obviously cannot be verified so assume it isn’t true, but interesting that people are saying this sort of thing…)

A source told me that number 10 contacted the libdems to ask if there was any point negotiating Brown’s position and they simply replied ‘no’.

Ultimately Brown has to resign and recommend Cameron to the Queen for Cameron to become Prime Minister. Even if Cameron’s screaming blue in the face, “I can form a Government! I can form a Government! We’ve done a deal with the Lib Dems!” Brown can still turn around and make them wait… wait until he’s had HIS chat with Clegg.

Yes. The constitution really is that crazy.