The Twitterati are all a-grumble this morning. Sterling has rallied a little against the Dollar. The UK hasn’t had its credit rating downgraded. In fact, from the Market’s point of view, things look… well, they look good.

“The Tories” they cry, “were BLUFFING! We haven’t got a deal and the markets haven’t crashed! Ooo the liars! ”

Ah. No. Sorry. Isn’t it just as plausible that the markets are rising on the back of confidence that a deal will be done (and considering the deadline set by Nick Clegg) at some point today, and that this deal will be putting the economy and sorting out the deficit as their top priority either way?

Markets like that sort of thing. Hell, this non-aligned political blogger loves this sort of thing. We haven’t got a Government but a majority Government looks more likely today than it did on Friday, doesn’t it?

Update: The BBC has another theory:

But once trading began, the FTSE 100 index of London’s leading shares leapt more than 4% – suggesting traders saw the EU deal over a fund to stop the Greek debt crisis spreading as much more significant.

Two almost identical announcements today from the Conservatives and Liberals suggesting that they’ve had good talks, stressing that their highest priority is ‘economic stability’ and, presumably the deficit.

They didn’t say anything else, but you’d be wrong to think there’s nothing to glean from the tantalising clues we’ve already had.

First, and really really importantly, they’ve already both started spinning positively about what this future coalition might be like – one that puts the national interest and the economic situation first. We’re being buttered up, and the ‘line’ is being taken well in advance of the official announcement of the deal. It’s not just the public, either: It’s the members of the two parties who must, it has to be said, be fretting and worrying about those devious new in-laws.

The other message to take from that is that both sides are clearly determined to do the deal. Everything that needs to be done to keep this deal viable – secrecy and positivity – is being done. There are NO leaks coming from either side, at all: One can assume that there’s a strict ‘no leaks’ clause on continued negotiations to prevent either side being put in an impossible position through a well placed leak or announcement forcing hands.

That’s politics for you – machinations, leaks, intrigue and deceit. Yet these negotiations are surprisingly clean. They’re all being… nice… to each other. Are you unsettled? Are you unnerved? This is, it must be said, weirder than Nick Clegg being compared with Churchill, isn’t it?

If I’d known coalitions were going to be this calming and civilising, I’d have been in favour a lot sooner.

Is it just me, or is it the less tribal politicians, bloggers, journalists and pundits that are breaking in favour of this really rather exciting prospect of a Liberal/Conservative Government?

For some of us it’s all about that Freedom Bill, or some Great Repeal Act, rolling back 13 years of odious authoritarian legislation. The Conservatives have the biggest mandate, but not a comprehensive one. The Lib Dems can hold the Conservatives to their pre-election noises about civil liberties, ensuring the Digital Economy Bill gets thrown out, ID cards get scrapped etc.

It’s also about being practical about the desirability for a majority Government if we’re going to deal with the deficit properly.

I’ve just finished writing a pro-Lib/Con piece for the Guardian’s Comment Is Free and rumours abound of an open “Do the Deal” letter going around that I’ll hopefully get to sign. We might not be a very strong or big voice, but from outside tribal bubbles, with no particular attachment to any one party and as someone who agonised over whether to vote Tory or Liberal (and, in the event, I feel pretty good about my choice), this is almost a dream outcome.

All the usual caveats about neither party being especially libertarian apply, but the two together? That’s a leap into the unknown and one that could, if the Lib Dems play it right, show the British People a very different and radical flavour of Government to the one we thought we’d be stuck with.

No matter how bad refusing Cameron’s offer will look (if a referendum on Proportional Representation is the absolute and only precondition that matters to the Liberal Democrats, as it looks… depressingly), Nick Clegg may have no choice.

It’s called the “Triple Lock” and it effectively binds the leader. Without two thirds support of the MPs and Federal Executive, Clegg needs to call a special conference. If he doesn’t get two thirds support of the special conference, he needs to ballot the members. You can see why they call it the Triple Lock. This, courtesy of Mark Park:

(i) in the event of any substantial proposal which could affect the Party’s independence of political action, the consent will be required of a majority of members of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons and the Federal Executive; and,

(ii) unless there is a three-quarters majority of each group in favour of the proposals, the consent of the majority of those present and voting at a Special Conference convened under clause 6.6 of the Constitution; and,

(iii) unless there is a two-thirds majority of those present and voting at that Conference in favour of the proposals, the consent of a majority of all members of the Party voting in the ballot called pursuant to clause 6.11 or 8.6 of the Constitution.

Brown could remain Prime Minister yet.

Update: There’s another issue to consider. Let’s assume Clegg picks the ‘easy’ option for the Lib Dems – Labour and the PR deal. They get their referendum. Everyone will know that this referendum was the carrot that kept Gordon Brown in power. Will people decide:

a) “Yes! PR and the possibility of a permanent Lib/Lab coalition governing forever sounds fantastic!”

b) “PR is awesome. It won’t lead to permanent Lib/Lab Government. It’s just absolutely necessary anyway”

c) “Fuck you, Lib Dems.”

A referendum may be in Gordon Brown’s gift, but the idea that such a coalition could WIN that referendum seems like a pipe dream to me. And if they lost it? Well, the dream dies for another half a century at least, and the backlash that caused the failure of the referendum will continue to claim more seats from the Lib Dems at the next General Election.

Update 2: From the comments (this obviously cannot be verified so assume it isn’t true, but interesting that people are saying this sort of thing…)

A source told me that number 10 contacted the libdems to ask if there was any point negotiating Brown’s position and they simply replied ‘no’.

So Brown’s just given a little speech to the cameras outside Number 10. The gist was this: Clegg and Cameron should take all the time they need to try and do a deal. Take weeks. Take months. Take years! But, when you’re done Clegg, come to me: I’ve got a little present for you and I think you’ll like it.

Ultimately Brown has to resign and recommend Cameron to the Queen for Cameron to become Prime Minister. Even if Cameron’s screaming blue in the face, “I can form a Government! I can form a Government! We’ve done a deal with the Lib Dems!” Brown can still turn around and make them wait… wait until he’s had HIS chat with Clegg.

Yes. The constitution really is that crazy.